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Of the thesis entitled:Ìý2 Degrees Celsius: Assessing the PotentialÌýof Urban CommercialÌýBuildingsÌýin Canada to Meet the 2°C Climate Change Target

Abstract:

To avoid the catastrophicÌýeffects of climate change, scientific consensus and international conventionÌýhave determined that the mean rise in global temperatures must be limited toÌýbetween 1.5°C and 2.0°C.ÌýÌýTheÌýIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests theÌýbuilding sectorÌýpossesses the most immediate mitigation potential and has proven technologicalÌýand design capability at hand.ÌýÌýTo meetÌýthis goal, a 55% reduction is required compared to a proposed Business-As-UsualÌýScenario forecast in emissions between 2005 andÌý2050.ÌýÌýFor Canadian commercial buildings, this isÌýequivalent to emissions dropping from 88.4 MtCO2e to 39.8 MtCO2e/yr.
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Between 2005 and 2050, theÌýfloor area of commercial building is expected to double from 654.2 million m2Ìýto 1,139.5 million m2Ìýwhile the emissions are to be halved.ÌýÌýThe proposed model suggests that, by 2050,Ìýnew and substantially renovated buildings should emitÌý15.3 kgCO2e/m2/yrÌýto achieve this. When combined with existing buildings, the blended emissionsÌýcap is expected to be 34.9 kgCO2e/m2/yr.ÌýÌýGiven that in 2013 new, renovated, andÌýexisting buildings in Canada was 46.67 kgCO2e/m2/yr, thisÌýambitious target implies aÌýsignificant transformation of commercial buildings.
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When consistently applied toÌýevery building, the 15.3 kgCO2e/m2/yr rate suggests anÌýevolving approach to design. This is especially true for urban sites whereÌýpassive design and renewable energy opportunities are limited. Although thereÌýare a number of built projectsÌýthat meet the criteria, they remain theÌýexception rather than the norm and deploy a maximum of energy efficientÌýtechnologies and design strategies.ÌýÌýAÌýfull range of innovative passive and active building technologies is leveraged,Ìýand many examples are most often notÌýsituated in a dense urban environment.
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Using an emission rate perÌýsquare metre reflects a "bottom-up" approach to transforming CanadianÌýcommercial buildings. Rather than relying on sweeping policy intervention orÌýmandating particular technologies, this metric can be used to bring the variousÌýdrivers ofÌýemissions together for an individual building, thus allowing theÌýmost applicable technologies and strategies to be selected on a case-by-caseÌýbasis. The thesis will demonstrate that a suite of measures focused on theÌýcombination of energy conservation and fuel choice canÌýnot only achieve thisÌýtarget on urban projects with limited passive means but suggest that theÌýadoption of further passive and active technologies could push performance evenÌýfurther.
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To investigate theÌýimplications of the emission cap in this context, a demonstration project is proposedÌýand sited in three different locations on a prototypical urban block.ÌýÌýLocated on a north-facing end-block, aÌýmid-block, and a south-facing end-block site, each isÌýdesigned to both currentÌýcode requirements and the 2°C scenario emission limit. The selection of anÌýurban context bridges the gap between the ideal conditions of rural or campusÌýbuildings, where few obstructions to leveraging passive design and implementingÌýextensiveÌýon-site renewable energy systems exist, and urban buildings withÌýtight sites and limited passive opportunities. With the world now predominantlyÌýurban, these sites are expected to represent the norm.ÌýÌýPablo Picasso saw constraints as sources ofÌýinspiration and inventionÌýrather than limitations to creativity. Similarly,Ìýrather than being a limitation to design, this thesis will show that it has theÌýopportunity to become a foundational design driver motivating invention andÌýinnovation within the field’s practical and conceptual foundations.

The examining committee is as follows: