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DTSTART:20210314T070000
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DTSTART:20201101T060000
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DTSTART;TZID=America/Toronto:20211104T160000
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URL:/statistics-and-actuarial-science/events/david-spro
 tt-distinguished-lecture-christian-genest
SUMMARY:David Sprott Distinguished Lecture by Christian Genest
CLASS:PUBLIC
DESCRIPTION:Summary \n\nPlease Note: This seminar will be given online.\n\
 nDistinguished Lecture Series\n\nCHRISTIAN GENEST\, Canada Research Chair 
 in Stochastic Dependence\nModeling\, Professor\n_McGill University_\n\nBAY
 ESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELING OF SPATIAL EXTREMES\n\n-----------------------
 --\n\nClimate change and global warming have increased the need to assess\
 nand forecast environmental risk over large domains and to develop\nmodels
  for the extremes of natural phenomena such as droughts\,\nfloods\, torre
 ntial precipitation\, and heat waves. Because\ncatastrophic events are rar
 e and evidence is limited\, Bayesian methods\nare well suited for the area
 l analysis of their frequency and size. In\nthis talk\, a multi-site model
 ing strategy for extremes will be\ndescribed in which spatial dependence i
 s captured through a latent\nGaussian random field whose behavior is driv
 en by synthetic\ncovariates from climate reconstruction models. It will be
  seen through\ntwo vignettes that the site-to-site information sharing mec
 hanism\nbuilt into this approach does not only generally improve inference
  at\nany location but also allows for smooth interpolation over large\,\ns
 parse domains.\n\nThe first application will concern the quantification 
 of the\nmagnitude of extreme surges on the Atlantic coast of Canada as par
 t of\nthe development of an overland flood protection product by an\ninsu
 rance company. The second illustration will show how coherent\nestimates o
 f extreme precipitation of several durations based on a\nBayesian hierarch
 ical spatial model enhance current methodology for\nthe construction\, at
  monitored and unmonitored locations\, of IDF\ncurves commonly used in inf
 rastructure design\, flood protection\, and\nurban drainage or water mana
 gement.\n\n-------------------------\n 
DTSTAMP:20250516T223138Z
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